Capitaland

Sell Capitaland at $2.74 on 31st Oct 2011; Buy at $2.49 on 23rd Sept

Trade decision conditions:

1. Expect a pullback from STI after rallied for more than 300 pts
2. Time to log some profit from Capitaland as i faithfully held it for a month

Profit: 10%

Dow Jones analysis

Dow Jones index rallied 330 pts last night. It is a very important rally, breaking the downtrend channel. Please refer to the below chart.

Shortists may need to practice extra cautions. The 50 DMA was broken, the first resistance will be 11716. If broken, the 200 DMA will be challenged. Personally, i do not expect DJ to rally consecutively 8 days to touch 11716. I expect a sideway channel to happen at the moment. November month will then be the key period.

Noble Group

Sell Noble Grp at $1.355 on intraday trade; buy at $1.31 on 6th Oct 2011

Trade decision conditions:

1. Astonishing profit made in 1 hour;
2. Take profit at 10DMA;
3. This trade helps me to recover all the SembMar losses and ended up with a slight profit

Profit: 3.4%

Noble Group

Buy Noble Grp at $1.31 on 6th Oct 2011

Trade decision conditions:

1. STI triggered a rebound
2. Looking for it to challenge 10DMA ($1.35)
3. Potential target price at $1.47 if 10DMA is able to clear; it may be just an intraday trade

Stop: $1.28

SembMar

Sell SembMar at $3.22 on 6th Oct 2011; buy at $3.13 on 5th Oct 2011

Trade decision conditions:

1. STI pushed for a rebound.
2. I want to switch cheaper stocks for longer term (important skill sets in trading)
3. Recover some of the earlier losses

Profit: 2.5%

SembMar

Buy SembMar at $3.13 on 5th October

Trade decision conditions:

1. DJ made a remarkable turnaround; short covering at the last hour
2. STI may have reached a temporary bottom of 2531; expecting volatility at 2530 and 2600
3. Third attempt on SembMar; i trade like a hunter, never give up on the prey.

Stop: $3.05

SembMar

Sell SembMar at $3.07 on intraday trade; buy at $3.12 on 4th October

Trade decision conditions:

1. Stop price is hit; follow the rules stricitly
2. STI look like going for 2380 which i feel is the bottom

Loss: 1.5%

SembMar

Buy SembMar at $3.12 on 4th October

Trade decision conditions:

1. Successfully defend my stop price at $3.10; buy back at $3.12
2. STI make another new low again
3. Still no signs of government announcing retrenchment and paycut

Stop: $3.07

SembMar

Sell SembMar at $3.08 on 4th Oct 2011; buy at $3.19 on 3rd Oct

Trade decision condition:

1. STI dropped to an unknown territory of under 2600
2. SembMar stop is hit;

Loss: 3.6%

SembMar

Buy SembMar at $3.19 on 3rd Oct 2011

Trade decision conditions:

1. STI hit a new low of 2605;
2. SembMar hit a new low of $3.15; the chance of a rebound is higher after making 2 new lows in 2 trading days
3. Still no news of retrechment and pay-cut news; meaning that it is just a correction

Stop: $3.10

STI status

As i was posting this update, STI created another new low of 2614. At this point, STI had entered into the bear territory. The news and papers are fuelling the public with a lot of bad news, draw the picture as bad as possible. The plight of our country entering recession, send the fear to everyone's heart.

Personally, i am still holding on the Capitaland position, strongly believe that it is just a big correction. The reasons are that i only see a slow down in the growth; there is no pay-cut across the boad; there is no major retrenchment in the job market. Why there is no posting of thousands of jobs lost in the news like the one in 2008? If we are to go back to the 2008 crisis, you will see real bloodshed in the market. This means that most of us will lose our job and pay-cut scheme will be among the hot topic.

Current market situation is a very tough situation for novice traders. But it provides a good opportunity for us to test our skills. Traders with traditional way of trading will fail in this fast and volatile environment. We will need to upgrade ourselves and this market provide us this opportunity.