My portfolio

Currently, i have some stocks with me - Ezra, OCBC, SGX and was riding with them since the bottom is formed at 2919. My wave theory has surpassed many of the market analysts' prediction so far. Many of the analysts were looking for STI to go for another leg down, basically telling Mr. Market what to do.

Let's look at the current status of STI.

3120 will be a critical level to look at now. Mr. Market is waiting for something before moving. At this moment, most of the blue-chips just stopped below their resistance level. If STI cross the 3120 point, the next resistance level may be at 3210 - 3230 range. But if it pull back, 2965 will be the support.

FirstRes

Sell FirstRes at $1.32 on 28th Mar; Buy at $1.29 on 18th Mar

Trade decision conditions:

1. STI has reached a junction on whether it wants to move forward or u-turn
2. FirstRes never move up much even STI surged 5% last week

Profit: 1% (cut-off those weak stocks)

This week is a critical week on the direction of STI. Please be extra cautious. Happy trading!

STI status

STI rallied for 4 days after hitting the bottom.

From the chart, you can see that the immediate trend has not switched. There's no need for celebrations for the bulls yet. 3120 is a very critical level in order for the tide to change. If 3000 is broken, i will see 2900 to be tested. So hold tight, move with the tide if necessary.

SGX

Buy SGX at $7.65 on 22nd Mar

Trade decision conditions:

1. Technically, SGX cross it's 10DMA ($7.56)
2. The price was now at the level before the last surge to $10.20
3. Generous payout on dividend
4. MACD crossover indicate a 'buy'

Stop: $7.37

OCBC

Buy OCBC at $9.07 on 21st Mar

Trade decision conditions:

1. Using the Elliott Wave theory, personally i feel that STI have reached the bottom last week. Refer to the chart.
2. OCBC chart hit a low of $8.94 but managed to make it back to the important level of $9
3. Dividend of $0.15

Stop: $8.92

FirstRes

A couple of stocks become potential 'buy' on my radar. But i want to take one at a time.

Buy FirstRes at $1.29 on 18th Mar

Trade decision conditions:

1. Dividend of $0.019
2. Cut across the 10DMA ($1.28) and stay above it
3. STI is under 2980, anything under this point i considered as oversold
4. At the support level of the MACD

Stop: $1.20 (new low)

Biosensor

Sell Biosensor at $1.11 on 17th Mar; Buy at $1.14 on 14th Mar

Trade decision conditions:

1. Stop price is hit
2. US market is facing a massive sell-off; DJ may drop to 11000 points (200DMA)
3. The global markets are worsen by Japan Quake conditions
4. STI is trending below 2950; the STI bottom is unsure if US market is going to fall further.

Loss: -2.6%

I still side the bulls as i feel that the market is facing a technical correction. The long-term trend has not changed yet.

Biosensor, Ezra

Buy Biosensor at $1.14 on 14th Mar
Buy Ezra at $1.63 on 14th Mar

Trade decision conditions:

1. STI dropped below 2980 again and the more it got near to 2900, i feel the risk is minimised.
2. Japan Quake rocked the global stocks which i think it was just temporary.
3. The above 2 counters held quite well despite a 90-points down attack.

Stop: Biosensor ($1.10)
Stop: Ezra ($1.60)

NOL

Sell NOL at $2.01 on 14th Mar; Buy at $2.07 on 10th Mar

Trade decision conditions:

1. Stop price of $2.01 triggered
2. STI may be heading toward 3000

Loss: 3%

STI update

The Japan earthquake had thrown Nikkei 5% down on the first day of trading this week. Many Japanese had lost their homes and loved ones. I hope that they will recover from this devastating natural disaster soon.

Back to trading in Singapore market, the earthquake have not yet hit STI to a new low. A lot of counters had turned into a buying state. I am waiting for the bears to try harder to bring the index down to 3000. In this way, it will test the buying signal of various counters. Till then, i will post the counters that hold well and most likely to move up.

Let's wait patiently and see how the bears react.

STI

I had anticipated the sell-down in the US market. But the sell-down was still not as hard. It just merely crossed it's 50DMA for DJ. I had mentioned that the sell-down would drag down the STI, that's why i had taken profit early (Refer to my earlier post).

The STI picture is now more clearer. As i was writing this post, STI had just hit a low of 3045. Personally, i feel that the 3000 point will be the buying time. If it hit 3000 point, it will be a shopping time for me.

Right now, even STI goes under 3062(200DMA). The volume is very thin, showing that the big players are sitting on the sideline. Hoping that those fear sheeps will throw their money to them. I feel that it's a right time to select stocks that holds very well. Please be extra cautious on selecting your stocks.

NOL

I was lucky enough to survive the pullback today, having taken profit yesterday. Overall, i felt that the uptrend is still intact.

Buy NOL at 2.07 on 10th Mar 2011

Trade decision conditions:

1. The RS is strong as related to STI
2. Cross the 10DMA of $2.06 and hold firmly despite the STI pullback

     3.   On the uptrend line as shown on the chart above, the target of 30DMA ($2.14) is possible

Stop: $2.01 (cutting through the uptrend line)

Profit taking day

Sell Ezra at $1.77 on 9th Mar 2011; buy at $1.69 on 3rd Mar
Sell Rotary at $0.93 on 9th Mar 2011; buy at $0.9 on 24th Feb
Sell Capitaland at $3.37 on 9th Mar 2011; buy at $3.36 on 3rd Mar

Trade decision conditions:

1. STI testing the resistance level; the direction will be unclear
2. US correction situation; not comfortable with it at this moment

Profit: 4.5% (Ezra), 3% (Rotary), no profit or loss (Capitaland)

Overall profit: 7.5%

OCBC update

Sell OCBC at $9.47 on 8th Mar; Intraday trade at $9.30

Trade decision conditions:

1. Surprise by it's sudden surge to the near resistance of $9.50 - $9.55
2. Tempted to take profit; affected by the situation in US
3. Near resistance at $9.50 - $9.55

Profit: 1.8%

OCBC

Buy OCBC at $9.30 on 8th Mar

Trade decision conditions:

1. Dividend of $0.15
2. It has been my most preferred bank than the other 2
3. Technically, it holds firmly above the 10DMA ($9.27). And the 10DMA is turning up.

Stop: $9.10

STI update

Let's take a look at US DJ situation.

A correction is at the corner, 50DMA (11964) is going to face the battle. This is contrary to the Asia mkts. From last Friday till yesterday night, DJ had dropped more than 150 points. But STI has not responded to it.

The technical signs are showing the positive signs. Firstly, STI is able to cross the 200DMA. Secondly, the MACD is showing the 'buy' sign. The immediate sign see 3120 as the main resistance. I expect the STI to face some volatility over this area before it continues the bull run. Of course, US situation must get better too before the bull run can continue.

Global market

The picture looks a bit unclear now. China market has rallied to test 3000 points and US markets are facing some corrections. At my point of view, it will be difficult for China market to cross 3000 hurdle firmly until US finishes it's correction.

So what will happen to STI? Personally, i feel STI will face a bit of pullback after recent rebound. I am still holding a bit of my stocks as i believe a real rebound is around the corner. For every pullback in STI, i will look for chance to enter.

Capitaland

Buy Capitaland at $3.36 on 3rd March

Trade decision condition:

1. Weekly chart is showing engulfing sign
2. Cross the short term 10DMA.
3. Generous dividend payout every quarter
4. The largest property counter in STI

Stop: $3.24 (can be a long term trade)

Please take note: The government intervention to the property market may happen again to cool down the property price.

Ezra

There was a bit of volatility on STI recently, due to a minor correction in DJ. In the short term, i would feel DJ may face further sell-down. So STI may also face a bit hiccup on that. Personally, i felt that it was a consolidation state for STI. For every sell-down, i would buy in.

The immediate support i feel now is 3025. We may not see another selldown to 2980 again. At this moment, we may see STI trying to test 3050 (200DMA) again.

Buy Ezra at $1.69 on 3rd March

Trade decision conditions:

1. STI consolidation state
2. Technically, Ezra has crossed the 10DMA and 30DMA. The 10DMA line is making a u-turn.
3. Ezra has a PE of 13.8x and yield of 0.8.
4. It is very near to the 52 week low of $1.50

Stop: $1.60

Profit taking day

Sell Singtel at $2.99 on 1st Mar 2011; buy on 25th Feb 2011
Sell Golden Agr at at $0.68 on 1st Mar 2011; buy on 28th Feb 2011
Sell CityDev at $11.20 on 1st Mar 2011; buy on 24th Feb 2011

Trade decision conditions:

1. STI rebound up to 3040; expects it to face resistance over this range 3040 - 3050
2. Expects STI to go under 2980 again. As such, i can pick up these stocks again
3. Short-term trading as i am trading against the short-term downtrend

Profit: Singtel +4%
Profit: Golden Agr +6%
Profit: CityDev +3%

Overall Profit: 13% (Achieve in 2 weeks)