STI

Yesterday, i mentioned about US bearish outlook affecting STI performance. I went back to redraw the STI chart to have a good look of what's happening.

By redrawing the whole picture, we can see that STI is on the edge of the resistance line of the channel. Breaking of the channel will indicate a bullish sign. With the bearish US outlook, I feel that the resistance will hold for the mean time which prompt for a pullback. Will it have a correction to the lower support line? With the Singapore election coming, i feel that it is less likely. Watch out for 3120 level and 3080 for a rebound.

Will US affect STI performance?

After i sold off my stocks last week, i was watching patiently to see whether STI will continue it's run. The global situation may play a part in it's performance. Let's take a look at S&P.

The double top looks scary for me and the PPO triggered a 'sell' at the moment. It's a bearish chart, most likely will break the MA(50). If there is a major correction in US, what will happen to STI?

Will STI hold well because of the May's election? I will do a proper analysis on STI chart on the next few days.

STI status

Above is the STI showing the short-term downtrend channel. It clearly shows that STI is approaching the upper resistance line. It is around 3225 area, and i believe it will stage a pullback over there. Risk will be lower if you start the shorting over this area. But from now till that area, it is still about 50 points away. So just hang on, wait for Mr. Market to tell you what to do.

Weak counters: Wilmar, KepLand, DBS
These counters appeared to be weak but the wave support them. At the mean time, it is not advisable to enter any shorts yet. Follow the old saying 'Trade with the trend', i will not react yet till Mr. Market says so. Again, these counters are based on my own analysis. Please do your own homeworks before any trades.

Take profit

Sell OCBC at $9.61 on 6th Apr; Buy at $9.07 on 21st Mar
Sell SGX at $8.45 on 6th Apr; Buy at $7.65 on 22nd Mar
Sell Ezra at $1.81 on 6th Apr; Buy at $1.63 on 14th Mar

Trade decision conditions:

1. STI is not far away from the resistance point. Although there is still some space, i prefer to harvest my profit first
2. A pullback is very highly possible unless the global situation improve

OCBC profit: 5.5%
SGX profit: 10% (thanks to the failed merger)
Ezra profit: 10%

Overall profit: 25.5%

A brilliant 3 week trading, having seen STI created such a big opportunity for me to gain. I will be waiting for the pullback.

Moving stocks, Lagging stocks, STI

For the past 1 week, i had seen some stocks turned 'green' on my indicators. But i did not react to buy them as i am sticking on to some funds for any pullbacks. I also seen some stocks lagging behind the market.

Moving Stocks:
Biosensors, Capitaland, Kep Corp, Cosco, XinRen, Yangzijiang, Noble, Swiber etc. There is still much more on my list.

Lagging Stocks:
Wilmar, KepLand. Especially Wilmar, it has indicated a 'sell' based on my indicators. But the immediate market trend is up. It is not advisable to trade against the trend.

I expect the STI to be moving up and down between the neutral line shown on the chart for the mean time. The upper band will be between 3120 - 3310 and the lower band will be between 2920 - 3120. It will stay on this channel as long as the global situation stay still. US job employment has improved. Once US market moves up, i will expect STI to move out this channel to a new high. Even China market is waiting for the situation in US. Once Fed increase the interest rate based on the improved economy, it may be the driver for the bull to move. Let's wait n see, listen to Mr. Market.

My portfolio

Currently, i have some stocks with me - Ezra, OCBC, SGX and was riding with them since the bottom is formed at 2919. My wave theory has surpassed many of the market analysts' prediction so far. Many of the analysts were looking for STI to go for another leg down, basically telling Mr. Market what to do.

Let's look at the current status of STI.

3120 will be a critical level to look at now. Mr. Market is waiting for something before moving. At this moment, most of the blue-chips just stopped below their resistance level. If STI cross the 3120 point, the next resistance level may be at 3210 - 3230 range. But if it pull back, 2965 will be the support.

FirstRes

Sell FirstRes at $1.32 on 28th Mar; Buy at $1.29 on 18th Mar

Trade decision conditions:

1. STI has reached a junction on whether it wants to move forward or u-turn
2. FirstRes never move up much even STI surged 5% last week

Profit: 1% (cut-off those weak stocks)

This week is a critical week on the direction of STI. Please be extra cautious. Happy trading!